In the realm of amateurs, what are the odds of surviving a K2 climb?
Zero. Your chances are zero. In fact, they’re so close to zero that it’s akin to constructing a rocket to launch yourself into orbit using only tools and materials from Home Depot.
I’ve climbed 14,000-foot mountains multiple times, spent countless days in the outdoors, taught wilderness first aid, have a decent grasp of basic glacier travel techniques, and know the fundamentals of snow and ice climbing. I’ve experienced temperatures dropping to -40 degrees where I live and have worked outside in conditions below -25 degrees. Amateurs not only lack such experiences and knowledge but also don’t come close to the extreme difference between me and a competent Himalayan mountaineer. There’s no difference between someone raised in the same scout troop as me, someone raised on Walnut Road across from me, or a skilled Himalayan mountaineer like Marty Schmidt.
Being at the top of his class in the US Air Force allowed Marty to choose his first assignment, so he picked Alaska and trained to climb Denali (his daytime job was in Air Force search and rescue). After his service, he began guiding on Denali and his toughest job was often navigating through treacherous terrain or keeping clients’ spirits up while snowed in a snow cave for two weeks during a storm. Eventually, he summited Denali 29 times, Aconcagua 34 times, Mount Cook 26 times, and Everest twice.
He guided in New Zealand and the Andes, honing his skills to guide on Everest and other Himalayan peaks over many years. He climbed not just the highest peaks on each continent (including Antarctica) known as the “Seven Summits” but also four other peaks over 8000 meters, the highest on Earth, in addition to Denali with his son, Broad Peak (an 8051-meter Himalayan peak), attempted to rescue three Iranian climbers in July 2013, and diffused a potentially deadly clash between Sherpas and Western climbers on Everest on April 27th before attempting K2. They went missing after an avalanche hit them at Camp 3 on K2, and their daughter/sister decided not to retrieve their bodies to avoid endangering anyone else.
What they know encompasses what we don’t:
Advanced glacier, ice, and rock climbing.
Rescue techniques from ice and rocks, as well as glacier crevasse rescue techniques.
Essentially emergency medical care levels of first aid and medical care for injured climbers.
Experience with rope handling, crampon usage, tent setup in hurricane-force winds, placing screws in ice, using ropes and harnesses, cooking and water production above 20,000 feet, including doing all these in oxygen-deprived environments.
Planning expeditions and routes, arranging travel, obtaining permits, securing supplies, acclimating to extreme altitudes, making major and minor decisions on routes, weather forecasting, equipment placement at intermediate camps before summit attempts, and more.
And they must be able to climb steep slopes in low oxygen conditions with a 90-pound backpack. Marty had incredible strength-to-weight ratios even as a 14-year-old rock climber, and he maintained that into his 50s.
K2 (and Annapurna) are far more difficult climbs than Everest, with an extremely experienced climber’s death rate being around 30% (when climbing Everest, many are guided by trained Sherpas or experienced Western guides. However, some professionals like stockbrokers or lawyers may also attempt it with guides). Everest’s death rate is 4%, primarily among wealthy tourists with basic skills and excellent physical condition, but they can’t summit 8000-meter peaks without the support of Sherpas and highly experienced Western guides’ battalions.
Even for highly skilled climbers, the chance of dying before getting down from K2, even after a successful summit, is 9%. And even if they survive, they might not retain all their fingers or toes if they suffer severe frostbite.
In essence, it’s zero. The summit’s possibility as an amateur is zero.